Buzz About Numbers in GOP Race for Governor.
Word is getting about that Republican Tom Foley’s lead in the August 10th primary for governor has tumbled-verging-on-collapse. Talk comes from insiders who’ve seen private polling figures. All-thumbs Foley ramping up against Fedele, over whom he enjoyed a 37 point lead in last Quinnipiac survey, which suggests Foley camp seeing same erosion others detecting.
With primary in two weeks, voters can expect to see harsher messages emerging. That Fedele ad featuring mournful, authentic workers at Foley company who lost their jobs was a direct hit on the former ambassador. Foley’s support has always seemed shallow, but it’s hard to see how obscure Fedele moves into the lead in such a short time, even with one effective ad. If Fedele does, it won’t be from any compelling message about his beliefs, accomplishments in office or plans to lead. Nevertheless, Foley’s talent for putting every foot wrong cannot be underestimated as pressure on him builds.
More as we hear it.
21 comments
ah… the unsubstantiated rumor. Will it take on a life of its own.
Fedele also enjoys better organization and his supporters seem more enthused. You get the sense that they are more likely to actually get out and vote.
That being said, the last tough election Mike was in was against Andrew McDonald for the state Senate, which, in an interesting twist of fate, led to his ouster from the General Assembly and ascension to the third floor of the capitol building.
The best asset that Tom Foley has is his name at the top of the ballot.
>>his supporters seem more enthused
The master of the understatement.
If you got this from the Fedele camp i laugh because he went around the state explaining he had a “scenario where they will win 50 +1 at convention” yet he got what 30%, then he was only 10 days from qualifying, then another 10, then hours…yet he truly has yet to qualify since he only raised around 229,000 himself….
Fedele and co. have a way of exaggerating thinking that it will somehow influence the masses.
Now that Fedele is on the air some movement is to be expected. The real question is will the movement continue. If it does the spots are working. If not, the race is over.
At this point the race is Foley’s to lose.
The Schiff and Grebal supporters are probably the most “enthused” volunteers out there. This has nothing to do with who will win the primary.
Fedele has had a lousy organization all along, it could never match up to Tom Foley’s organization. It’s gotten better with the addition of Jim Conroy but he came in way too late to save the sinking ship.
EdM-
First, I want to apologize for my tirade on the other post. It was uncalled for and crossed the line. This should be a positive, issues oriented debate and I lost sight of that.
That said, I agree that I have seen Schiff and Griebel supporters willing to go to the ends of the earth for their candidate, though I disagree that Conroy’s addition to the Fedele staff (along with what appear to be some other extremely positive additions) is too little, too late. Let’s recall Scott Brown- where the election was on January 20, and poll numbers didn’t start to break until January 10.
With that in mind and the dedication of Griebel’s supporters, I wouldn’t write him off either as an interesting alternative to the other two.
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Codeword- Don’t ever apologize to Justin/Bill/ EdM, he called me a “b****” nice talk for a campaign manager. His reaction is why my kids want nothing to do with the political process.
ABF= Anybody But Foley, Fedele, Griebel, take your pick..
Should be interesting on August 10th..
Thanks codeword47, I too apologize to you for posting some nasty things about you.
You make a very good point about the Fedele situation in comparison to Scott Brown. I will offer though that I think there were at least two major reasons that explain Scott Brown’s victory, Martha Coakley ran a horrible campaign and there was the nationwide furor against the Democrats on January 19, 2010 because they had just jammed through Obamacare. The Brown/Coakley thing was a partisian (Democrat vs Republican) thing with a huge divisive issue (Obamacare) and that’s not the case with Fedele & Foley or even Grebal for that matter. Their messages are all pretty similar except I maintain that Grebal borders on liberal. Scott Brown had a very good campaign from the beginning and worked very hard. While I really do like Mike Fedele, I was disappointed with his lackluster approach to the whole race. I don’t see that he really reached out across the state for backing as evidenced by his financial disclosure statements which show that he pretty much only raised his money from four towns, Stamford, Greenwich, Darien and New Canaan. He only had two contributions from all of Windham County. On the other hand, Tom Foley has a much stronger campaign organization than Mike Fedele and Oz as well. Yes, I suppose we can debate that until the end of time but I’m basing this on what I’m hearing from activists and people across the state. If Fedele had the type of organization that Foley has and the personal drive and mindset towards campaigning that Tom Foley and Oz have had all along, it might be a completely different situation. All of these points lead me to conclude that it’s still too little, too late for Mike Fedele even with the addition of Jim Conroy who is indeed a veteran campaigner who knows what he’s doing.
On the other hand this “Sue” person as I mentioned before only posts here to lie about me and it’s getting tiresome. Since she continues to keep it up, she’s only making as ass out of herself. Sue, you are an ignorant, stupid liar. This is not name calling, this is the truth. If you don’t like being called and ignorant, stupid liar, then stop being an ignorant, stupid liar.
I have a hard time seeing Griebel’s positions as “liberal”. In Connecticut, Liberal means bowing to the powers of the unions, something it certainly doesn’t seem Griebel is willing to do. He seems more of a realist to me, understands that guess what- with the way the mess has been created- and more importantly ignored- somethings that not everyone likes have to be on the table.
I’m not convinced Foley has a stronger campaign organization- just a bigger one. You said in your earlier post that Griebel’s supporters are highly dedicated. I see Griebel’s support as a mile deep, although polling shows a few inches wide. Fedele’s support currently is many loyalists, although I think his support will only go up over the next two weeks. I see Foley’s support as a mile wide- and only millimeters deep, as proved in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, where the most telling statistic wasn’t Foley’s lead, or even the number of undecideds. It was the fact that 73% of the GOP respondents said that they might change your mind between now and election day (that goes for all of the candidates).
A strange storm is brewing, with an August primary- and an unbelievable amount of political apathy across the state.
It’s going to be an interesting two weeks, for sure.
Larry Cafero made an interesting point today in the Courant about how this is going to be a very low turnout primary. Having an active base of supporters could make a big difference. I agree with other commenters that Tom Foley seems to lack any electrified base that is going to get out the vote. Fedele and Greibel however seem to have these cult followers who will make sure to come out and vote.
All the folks who Tom has reached with his ad buys may be too busy on Martha’s Vineyard to come home and vote on August 10.
This getting close. However, we need to take a close look at the debate tonight and see that Oz Griebel tops both Foley and Fedele with his charisma, ideas, and intelligence. Go Griebel!
You’re right codeword47, me calling his positions “liberal” is a bit extreme. I do believe though that his idea of putting tolls back on the roads and considering tax increases instead of reducing spending make his position to the left of the other two Republicans.
I agree with Larry Cafero that the primary turnout will be low except in spotty areas where there are highly competitive primaries for State Rep and Judge of Probate. I’m not sure the 5 or ten people on Martha’s Vineyard are going to make much of a difference in the primary and odds are they’re voting absentee.
There’s a debate tonight Tommy? Ho hum…….
Tommy as a Grebal supporter of course you’re going to say he “tops” the other two candidates. I don’t care to watch boring debates since I’d rather watch Wheel of Fortune but if I did watch the “debate” odds are about 90% that I’m going to say that Tom Foley topped your guy by a mile. I’ve seen Grebal speak numerous times and I’m not impressed with him at all and I don’t like the fact that he gave thousands of dollars to Democrats and the DCCC to help defeat Chris Shays in 2008. I think he looks very awkward and uneasy when he speaks in public and he comes across as insincere and not very knowledgeable about what he’s talking about.
So, when is there going to be a real poll instead of candidate leaks.
Yeah, I really just don’t see how Fedele can move into the lead given all of his baggage. First off the fact that he took public campaign money in a Republican primary is unbelievable. Especially while he claims to be a fiscal conservative. Secondly, he’s just an idiot. He looked horrendous on the debate last night. He couldn’t even respond to the questions coherently. I also agree with The Source, I’m going to have to see some real poll numbers before I believe this. We need more than just rumors.
If the Q poll shows that Foley’s lead has been cut in half its a whole new ballgame, especially in a low turnout primary. If not, the game is probably over.
“cut in half its a whole new ballgame”
What? Cutting 35 in half is still over 17 points, that’s hardly a “whole new ballgame.”
Beating someone by 17 points is being “soundly defeated” in the words of a certain State Senator who claimed he “soundly defeated” his opponent when he beat her by ten points.
No one has tossed out any number yet on how they think the three will do. Let me be the first:
Foley 49%
Fedele 36%
Ozzie 15%
I honestly wanted to say 65, 25 & 10 but I’ll buy into the BS that’s been flying around this stupid blog and give the losers something to hope for over the next eleven days. Even terminally ill cancer patients need words of encouragement.
So what do the rest of you think about the Boughton/Wilson-Foley matchup? Word is getting about that Boughton is behind and will lose. Hey, if Rennie can make $hit up, so can I!
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The Fidele and Grebal people got awfully quiet all of a sudden!
C’mon, put some number out there. Be sure to give us your take on the Republican LG’s race as well. I say Boughton will lose 53% to 47%.