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Tom Foley made a serious misstep earlier this year when he named wigs for cancer patients as a health insurance mandate that we could do without.  Dan Malloy’s been waiting months to pitch that one across the plate, and today he wound up and let it go.  He’ll do it again.  Who wouldn’t? It was a bit of a non-sequitur to raise it as an example of Mr. Foley’s heartless budget ax since it mostly applies to private insurance coverage, but it makes the broader point in a manner that will continue to torment the Foley campaign.

Mr. Malloy thinks his Republican opponent is not being accurate with budget numbers of specific in how he would solve the looming problem.  The Democrat says the former ambassador claimed at a University of Connecticut forum today that he could cut $2 billion for the state budget without raising taxes.  That leaves $1.4 billion, under Mr. Foley’s estimate of the deficit, and Foley ignores that.  Fair enough.  These numbers are a moving target and the former Stamford mayor is right to check his opponent’s math.

Mr. Malloy, however, is not so free with the numbers himself.  He is candid in recognizing the scope of the problem.  His website, however, is shy on attaching numbers to solutions.  He promises “an honest discussion of where we stand and what steps my administration will take each and every day to move Connecticut back toward prosperity.”

We’d like that discussion now, not in January.  Mr. Malloy and Mr. Foley have agreed to 8 debates.  At an early one, the hosts should give each candidate a white board and a marker.  The only task will be to show us how you get to $3.5 billion.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Washington Post/ABC News poll, and the Cook Political Report are dominating political news today.  The wind (headwinds and tailwinds) is the metaphor of the day.  All conclude that Democrats are in for a rough fall as Americans most likely to vote are pessimistic and in a generally foul mood about the state of the economy and course of the nation.  Michael Muskal, of The Los Angeles Times, has a clear-eyed summary.

State Senator Sam Caligiuri, of Waterbury, the Republican candidate for Congress in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district, has a poll of his own for public consumption.  Conducted by the Republican firm National Research, Inc., the survey says Caligiuri is in a dead heat with 2-term Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy.  Mr. Caligiuri’s poll of 400 likely voters, conducted on August 30th and 31st, has Murphy ahead 40% to 39%.  Voters in the district that runs from the western suburbs of Hartford to the New York border must be disoriented, not simply angry, if they are close to electing the oily  Mr. Caligiuri to Congress.

Mr. Murphy needs to win this one if he’s to realize his ambition of running for the United States Senate in 2012 against Independent incumbent Joseph Lieberman, who’s suggested that he’ll seek a fifth term in two years.

Republican United States Senate candidate Linda McMahon tells voters to “look behind the curtains” to learn the shadowy consequences of the health care bill she says Democratic opponent Richard Blumenthal supported.  The mailer, aimed at senior citizens (though the two people in the photo with Mrs. McMahon don’t look like seniors), doesn’t use the loaded term “Obamacare” in deep blue Connecticut.  Nevertheless, it counts the ways “Washington’s health care plan” calls for changes voters might not like.  Those include costs, choice of providers, and range of services.

The brochure includes the obligatory reference to Vietnam, continuing the theme that the popular 5-term attorney general may not be the man voters think he is.

You can see a pdf of it here: McMahon Mailer-Curtain.

Take a moment to recall a pivotal time in the annals of the struggles of freedom against tyranny.  The Germans began 58 uninterrupted days of bombing London and other British cities 70 years ago today.  It lasted until May of the following year. The world would be a different place today if they had not held out against the Nazi assaults.

Popular American reporter Ernie Pyle describes what he saw.  Rare color film was recently discovered and was released today to mark the 70th anniversary.

Mr. Malloy, Mrs. Wyman, and their supporters will probably offer a milder greeting when they march in today’s big annual Newtown Labor Day parade.

Political numbers analyst Nate Silver, who won renown with his Five Thirty Eight, is now associated with The New York Times. The respected polling guru is out with the first of weekly measures of contests for governor across the nation.

Silver predicts Democrat Dannel Malloy defeating Republican Tom Foley by 6 points, 51-45. This comes close to what we are hearing some private polls are showing. This will come as encouraging news for Republicans who have been concerned that the Foley campaign has stalled since his narrow August 10th primary victory.

Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, announced today that President Obama with appear for him on September 16th at the Stamford Marriott.  The event, sponsored by the Connecticut Senate Victory Fund, features a top ticket price of $12,400.00, which includes a photo at a presidential reception.  Others will pay $1,000.00 a ducat.

Mr. Blumenthal sent this message to supporters and others today:

Today my campaign announced an exciting piece of news. President Obama will be joining me in Stamford on September 16th for an early evening fundraising reception. I hope you will come out for what is sure to be a fantastic event as we head into the home stretch of the campaign.

Attached please find an invitation with all the pertinent details, or you can get more information at: http://www.actblue.com/page/Sep16. If you are interested in attending or have questions, you can also contact my Finance Director, Joe Kelley, at 203.359.4001 or Joe@RichardBlumenthal.com.

Thank you again for your support. We could never have gotten this far without you.

Dick

Attorney and columnist Norm Pattis combines both his jobs in a stinging Connecticut Law Tribune piece on the federal grand jury investigation of criminal justice in Waterbury.  Mr. Pattis represents Martin Minnella, a Waterbury criminal defense attorney, whose relationship with State’s Attorney John Connelly is the subject of federal investigators’ scrutiny.  Pattis, whose column is behind the Law Tribune’s pay wall, proclaims and warns, “I rarely write so directly and openly about a case I am handling. But I write about this case because I believe the investigation presents a clear and present danger to the bar of this state. I write to say to those among the Waterbury bar using the pending federal grand jury investigation of Connelly and Marty to settle personal and petty scores of their own: Shame on you.”

Attorneys Pattis and Minnella are feeling aggrieved by the investigation, which has included federal agents meeting with former–and perhaps current–clients of Minnella.  The column is a Valentine to Minnella’s legal career and minimizes the Minnella-Connelly friendship. The column confirms that investigators are bringing to bear their considerable resources.  Pattis pooh-poohs their efforts, saying his instincts tell him they will be fruitless.

The column is probably not a way to get Minnella out of the line of fire.  These sorts of broadsides usually cause investigators to employ more intense measures.  Pattis’ claim that he’ll see to it the investigation fails to nab his client sounds like a dare.  A risky declaration to issue, as is the assertion that “there is a good reason to believe the feds are playing footsie with a former associate fired for taking liberty with firm funds and having potential tax issues all his own.”  That appears several sentences after Pattis accuses the feds of trafficking in veiled threats and salacious rumors.

A saga is taking on the well-worn path from Waterbury to the federal courthouse in New Haven. Substantial developments are imminent.  United States Attorney David Fine knows that opportunities like this do not often occur.  He’ll keep the bloodhounds on the trail as the stench scent grows stronger.

You think it’s hot outside?  Check your mailbox.  Republican United States Senate candidate Linda McMahon has unleashed a scorching attack on opponent Richard Blumenthal’s false statements about his military service that have shadowed the attorney general’s campaign since they were reported by The New York Times in May.

The brochure, which declares on the front, “Honor Demands Truth” and identifies itself as “An Important Message From Veterans For McMahon” can be seen in full in this pdf: McMahon Vets Attack Blumenthal.  The piece includes a message to Mr. Blumenthal from 46 veterans.  The tone is aggressive regret.  It includes the explosive phrase sentence, “You’ve lied.”  The veterans accuse the 5-term attorney general and Marine Reserves veteran of being “dishonest” and “dishonorable.”

The piece also continues the theme of the McMahon campaign that “Dick Blumenthal Is Not Who We Thought He Was.”  We’ll find out how much of a fighter he is when we see his response to this barrage, which will no doubt be accompanied by television commercials.  Mr. Blumenthal needs to come out of his foxhole and engage.

Tom Foley’s fierce, consistent opposition to taxpayer financing of political campaigns resonated with many Republicans in his narrow victory over Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele three weeks ago for their party’s nomination for governor.  Mr. Foley raised the issue of using public funds for political campaigns often during the long slog to the nomination.  He emphasized the ill-considered program’s expense as the state faces historic budget shortfalls for the next several years.

The former ambassador to Ireland should be able to use the issue to good effect against his Democratic opponent, former Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy, who’s sitting on a fat $6 million in public cash, delighting in the legislature’s doubling the amount he would have received before Democrats increased the amount a candidate for governor receives.  The Greenwich businessman, however, appears to have softened his opposition to public financing.  He sent a fundraising email Monday asking for contributions of up to $100 (the maximum allowed under the public financing law) to Jeff Wright, the Republican candidate for state treasurer, who is trying to raise the $75,000 in small contributions necessary to collect the public bounty.

Mr. Foley writes in his message that  ”[o]ur state deserves someone who will look out for their tax dollars and will put a stop on the reckless spending that has taken place over the last 12 years.”  That guardianship of tax dollars does not extend to the $750,000 Mr. Wright is hoping to snag in public funds.

The temptation of that public funding bonanza makes politicians contort themselves in the pursuit of it.  Mr. Foley’s joined a crowd he disdained a few weeks ago.