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Cook Report: It’s a Toss Up.

Welcome Instapundit Readers!

The sober, nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its assessment of the Connecticut Senate race today, moving the contest between Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon from Lean Democratic to Toss Up.  This will add to growing dread among Democrats that Mr. Blumenthal is letting this race slip away.  The change in rating will add to growing Republican enthusiasm for Mrs. McMahon as she becomes the more visible and confident candidate in the race.

Here’s a summary from the Cook analysis of the race:

[Democrats] say that ultimately voters’ concerns about McMahon’s record will trump any concerns they have about President Obama’s agenda. This, too, might be true to a degree. The larger point, though, is that with seven weeks left to go, McMahon has made this a race and Democrats’ best efforts to stall her candidacy have not worked. This, of course, could certainly change as they start airing negative ads against her, but for now McMahon is in the hunt, handing Democrats a race in an expensive blue state that they weren’t expecting. [Emphasis added.]

Calling the race, which Blumenthal lead by more than 40 points in January, a toss-up, may serve as a tonic for Republican insiders despairing over the defeat of front-running United States Representative Mike Castle to oddball Christine O’Donnell in Delaware’s Republican Senate primary, making that seat a likely Democratic hold.


1 Charles Epperson { 09.16.10 at 4:02 pm }

“Calling the race, which Blumenthal lead by more than 40 points in January, a toss-up, may serve as a tonic for Republican insiders despairing over the defeat of front-running United States Representative Mike Castle to oddball Christine O’Donnell in Delaware’s Republican Senate primary, making that seat a likely Democratic hold.”

The thing is they donot want any of the new candidates to win. They are not part of their click. That is why they take their toys and go home if they lose and preach that we need to stick together if they win. they need to back teh republicvan Candidates annd not worry about who is an encumbant (within the party that is) or not.

2 Cecil Moon { 09.16.10 at 4:03 pm }

Thank you for this report. It is the best news I have had all day. It also restores my faith in the sensibility of Conn. residents. Stolen Valor, indeed!

3 Bill { 09.16.10 at 4:08 pm }

“….may serve as a tonic for Republican insiders despairing over the defeat of front-running United States Representative Mike Castle to oddball Christine O’Donnell in Delaware’s Republican Senate primary, making that seat a likely Democratic hold.”

And so it may. But how does it profit Republicans to support someone like Mike Castle, who supports the whole big-government, nanny-state, spend and spend Democrat administration. Let’s at least try to stand by our principles and support those who do want smaller government.

4 wpw { 09.16.10 at 4:09 pm }

McMahon has come back from a 40 point deficit, but O’Donnell at 11 points back is a sure loser? If I recall correctly, there was similar talk about McMahon being an oddball as well. Lots of time in this race yet. Delaware is a relatively small state and it is possible for a candidate to do a lot of retail politics in 6-7 weeks. I think she has a solid chance to overcome the negative adjectives if she can get out and show people she is not an “oddball”.

5 John Fembup { 09.16.10 at 4:30 pm }

Look, I like Linda McMahon and I hope this news is accurate–at the same time, this sober Cook organization still has Lisa Murkowski in the “solid” column in Alaska.

6 Blumenthal blows 40 point lead « For What It’s Worth { 09.16.10 at 4:44 pm }

[…] blows 40 point lead Jump to Comments Poll says Connecticut senate race now a toss-up. To know him is to despise him, I guess. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Harry […]

7 inspectorudy { 09.16.10 at 4:48 pm }

Gee, let’s see now. Mrs. McMahon has turned a wrestling business into a billion dollar enterprise by intelligence and hard work. Mr. Blumenthal has taken a safe peacetime military job in the reserves and lied it into a Audy Murphy record of heroism. He has gone after more business in Ct. than the IRS and run off more jobs than a morals patrol. Which one would you like to represent you and your state in the DC give away program?

8 Paul G. Littlefield { 09.16.10 at 5:09 pm }

Kevin, I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Christine O’Donnell in Delaware senate race. Overnight she went from victorious but broke to victorious and $1Million in donations from around the country and promise of support from NRC and senate republican election committee. Castle is another Rob Simmons, someone who votes on the democrat side. He is another one like Blumenthal who expected a coronation.

The conservative face of the country is speaking out and voting in response to threats to their liberty and reckless spending with escalating trillion dollar deficits and a future of national unemployment at the 10% level.

People are listening to Linda and they like what they are hearing. She has the gravitas to be an influential U.S. Senator, leading the way out of chaos to sanity and properity.

9 sam { 09.16.10 at 5:20 pm }

When the votes are cast on Nov 2, I fully expect Blumenthal to replicate the performance of Martha Coakley.

10 GringoBob { 09.16.10 at 5:51 pm }

remember, the republican “leadership” brought us a marxist president, a filibuster proof senate and a “sit down and shut up” majority House – tell me again why I am supposed to follow them and then tell me where we are going ?

11 ic { 09.16.10 at 6:26 pm }

oddball Christine O’Donnell

Wasn’t McMahon labeled by her primary opponent as a self-financed oddball a couple of news cycles ago?

Throw the bums out, and worry about the oddballs next time. The oddballs are new and less likely to do as much damage to the country as the entrenched insiders, the ruling class who forced their pet causes down our throats and couldn’t stop robbing us in broad day lights. The oddballs can at least slow them down.

12 M. Simon { 09.16.10 at 6:34 pm }

Just keep repeating after me, “It can’t happen here.” Or if you prefer “It can’t happen in Delaware.” Because – you know – crazy people can’t win.

But I have some advice: come Nov 3rd switch from LSD to heroin. It won’t calm your delusions but it will do what it is supposed to do. Make them easier to bear.


In all seriousness, It might be good to give up your faith and actually start studying reality. The Tea Party has been knocking off Rs and Ds (in the general) for almost a year. Might it not be a good idea to take them seriously? If for no other reason than to develop an effective counter?

13 jschmidt { 09.16.10 at 7:35 pm }

In the end the voters will need to choose between someone who is a Pelosi/Reid/Obama clone supporting their failed policies or a Republican. Supporting a Democrat means no jobs, higher taxes, more corruption in Congress ala Waters, Rangel ,Murtha, Franks, Dodd, and more intrusion by government in our lives.

14 SenatorMark4 { 09.16.10 at 8:11 pm }

IF IN DOUBT…THROW THEM OUT! There is no better reason needed than that and it really doesn’t matter what part of the alphabet they put behind their name. We’re electing an opposition to this crazy leftist regime occupying the levers of government! Period.

15 Fuzzy Dunlop { 09.16.10 at 9:33 pm }

Dick Blumenthal has support that is unquantifiable in polls. Moreover, as Nate Silver points out on 538, there are no more undecideds to win over. Linda has what support she’s going to get, and Dick’s support is likely higher than most polls are even showing. And there’s the fact that Connecticut voter’s aren’t total idiots. Moreover, I still don’t believe our general election voters will respond positively to wealthy self funders. On that final note, Linda’s mailers are seriously pissing people off, ala the way Ned Lamont’s full frontal phone and mail blitz turned off so many primary voters. Fuzzy predicts a drubbing by greater than 10 points for both Foley and McMahon.

And JSchmidt, I counted 8 years of Bush running up to the current economic calamity… Democrats didn’t win control of both houses until 2006, about a year before the the $hit from the subprime crisis hit the fan and the economy really tanked.

You honestly think it’s Democratic policies that got us here? Or do you just think they blew it by not pulling a miracle out of their a$ses in the last two years?

16 brent { 09.16.10 at 10:05 pm }

the o’donnel vs coons race with be in single digit in 2 weeks watch

17 Anton { 09.17.10 at 1:13 pm }

Great post. They’re bringing in Clinton in an attempt to save Blumenthal

18 46… « Countenance Blog { 09.17.10 at 7:46 pm }

[…] shoo-in to replace the retiring Chris “Countrywide” Dodd.  Now, Cook has Blumenthal-McMahon a toss-up.  To think, the ex-wife of the wrestling creep could topple the slickest politician in […]

19 Charles { 09.18.10 at 6:26 am }

>>Connecticut voter’s aren’t total idiots

Only an idiot would believe that lawsuits create jobs.

20 Fuzzy Dunlop { 09.19.10 at 12:46 am }

>>Connecticut voter’s aren’t total idiots

Only an idiot would spend 50 million of their personal fortune for a senate seat. There are far better uses of one’s money rather than such an insane exercise in vanity.

21 Charles { 09.19.10 at 3:52 pm }

Do we know this is an exercise in vanity? Maybe she’s doing it out of concern for her fellow citizens and love of country.

22 Noah Bawdy { 09.19.10 at 6:38 pm }

I just threw some ca$h McMahon’s way.