DGA Trash Talks Q Poll on Eve of CT Gov Survey.

That eyebrow-raising PPP poll showing Democrat Governor Dannel P. Malloy 8 points ahead of Republican rival Tom Foley has not steadied nerves at the Democratic Governors Association. Twelve hours before the release of the latest Quinnipiac survey of the disputatious race, a DGA operative is talking trash about Connecticut’s premiere polling operation.

The DGA email is below. Some of the numbers appear to be cherry-picked. In Iowa, for example, a recent Des Moines Register poll also put Ernst ahead of the flailing Braley by 6 points, roiling the race.

For a more even-handed discussion of polling challenges this year, see this analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com.

From: Danny Kanner <kanner@dga.net>

Subject: BACKGROUND: Quinnipiac Poll Struggles With Likely Voter Screen

Date: October 7, 2014 at 6:06:00 PM EDT

To: Danny Kanner <kanner@dga.net>

With Quinnipiac University set to release a new poll in the Connecticut governor’s race tomorrow, it’s worth noting the organization’s significant and ongoing challenges in accurately identifying an accurate sample of likely voters, and therefore capturing the state of races across the country.

Below is background information regarding how their numbers have been far outside of the consensus of other pollsters in the last month. As you might remember, this is the same polling organization that showed Andrew Cuomo leading Carl Paladino in the 2010 New York governor’s race by only six points in late September. Governor Cuomo ultimately won the race by 30 points, 63-33.

Here’s the background:

2014 Colorado Governor
		Beauprez	Hickenlooper	Margin
Public Poll Average (7/5 – 9/14)		44	46	+2 Hickenlooper
Quinnipiac Poll (9/15)		50	40	+10 Beauprez

CO-Gov: The latest Quinnipiac Poll showed Governor Hickenlooper down 10 points in his race for reelection. The sample assumed about a roughly eight-point Republican Party ID advantage. However, according to the exit polls in 2010, there was a 6-point Democratic advantage (33% D / 27% R / 40% I). In 2012m it was a 5-point advantage in the exit polls (34% D / 29% R / 37% I). If you take the Quinnipiac Poll party support levels at face value (they show Hickenlooper at 93%-4% with Dems, 5%-89% with GOP, and 37%-50% with Independents), and re-weight it using the 2010 exit poll party ID numbers, you end up with Hickenlooper 47% – Beauprez 45%. Hardly a 10-point lead for Beauprez.

2014 Connecticut Governor
		Foley	Malloy	Margin
Public Poll Average (2/26 – 9/2)		42	40	Margin of Error
Quinnipiac Poll (9/8)		46	40	+6 Foley

CT-Gov: The sample in their last poll appeared to be, exactly or nearly 32% Republican, 33% Democratic, and 35% Independent. However, in 2010, the electorate was 12 points more Democratic than Republican in the exit polls – 40% Dem, 28% Republican, 33% Independent. Reweighting the Sept 10th poll to that electorate would give Malloy a 45% – 42% lead. Again, hardly a 6-point lead for Foley.

2014 Virginia Senate
		Gillespie	Warner	Margin
Public Poll Average (7/5 – 9/19)		34	51	+17 Warner
Quinnipiac Poll (9/22)		39	48	+9 Warner

2014 Iowa Senate
		Ernst	Braley	Margin
Public Poll Average (8/11 – 9/10)		44	43	Margin of Error
Quinnipiac Poll (9/15)		50	44	+6 Ernst