When the Frontrunner Tumbles.
Disparate events and circumstances have joined to cause Republican frontrunner for governor Tom Foley’s poll numbers to plummet, according to polls conducted by two campaigns. The results from both polls show Foley and rival Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele running nearly even among likely primary voters. The biggest gainer: undecided voters.
A significant chunk of voters who’ve moved away from Foley are not committed to Fedele. Foley was bound to lose some support once Fedele got millions in taxpayer financing for his campaign and joined in the contest for command of the airwaves. Fedele’s funding came as Foley mishandled questions about his business dealings and sometimes tumultuous personal life. Fedele was ready to exploit the opportunity Foley provided. His somnolent campaign has come alive.
Because neither Foley, Fedele, nor Simsbury Republican Oz Griebel enjoys a deep reservoir of support among Republicans, the race among them was always likely to feature some swings. The state of the race today, however, represents something more dramatic than that. The airwaves are thick with negative ads tonight. If Griebel had a few hundred thousand dollars, he might be able to position himself as the alternative to the two battling Fairfield County candidates. But he doesn’t, and who knows if there’s any airtime left for him to buy.
Once the ominous voices in each candidate’s ads have done their maximum work, at least one of them will have to try to coax the undecided Republicans into their column.
34 comments
Among regular (non-policy-wonk) people in my neighborhood:
1) Most are somewhat aware that an election is coming up, but could not tell you in which month -
2) Most have heard of McMahon and Foley, some have heard of Fedele, a few have heard of Griebel, and none have heard of Schiff.
3) Most could not tell you, with much certainty, which seat any of the above names are running for. The governor and senate races are mashed into an “election.”
4) It’s pretty much the same on the Democratic side…
And while most have heard of Simmons, they don’t know that he’s running for something — and if they DO, then they don’t know which office.
(Did I forget anyone else??)
hmmm… which two campaigns would run such a poll?
One is probably a Senate campaign. They all include gubernatorial information in their polls.
“One is probably a Senate campaign. They all include gubernatorial information in their polls.”
That is absolutely not true. I was called twice earlier in the year and the polling question was only on the US Senate race where sometimes they included an issues question or two. Neither of them asked about the Governor’s race.
Using words like “all” or “never” give you no credibility in situations like this.
And once again Kevin doesn’t tell us any details about these “polls.” Another guy with no credibility.
No credibility? That would be….. you Justin (EdM). Kool-Aid is around the corner. Take another swig, Tommy Boy has been stung. He may make it through the primary, but he is totally unelectable. This leaves another year of little gains in the House and the Senate.
Ed,
I caught your earlier comment before Kevin deleted it (Ed called Sue a not very nice name again). You remind me of the old Dan Akroyd SNL Weekend Updates, where he would begin his Point/Counter-Point with his famous catchphrase “Jane, you ignorant slut.”
See e.g., http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7S_XWuKpHc ; see also http://www.hulu.com/watch/2306/saturday-night-live-point-counterpoint-lee-marvin-and-michelle-triola
This is not intended as a compliment.
We’ll see what the Q poll says
Check out the new Bibb ad on Fedele’s youtube page. CLASSIC! I have officially switched from Foley to undecided to Fedele. Not because of the ad, but because he has a solid plan and a set of balls.
Foley’s numbers have tumbled because they were a house of cards, built on name recognition alone. Now it is up to Fedele to do what Foley couldn’t: Prove that he deserves the job.
OK Mike, the ball is in your court, don’t drop it.
Before we start to take the Quinnipiac Poll too seriously take a look at how they score.
The Q-Poll is 2nd to last among established polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html
Well Fuzzy, it’s certainly appropriate in the case here with Sue as it was on SNL. She’s a liar and a johnny-one-note “Er Justin, er Bill, er EdM, Kool-Aid, Kool-Aid, Kool-Aid, Kool-Aid, Kool-Aid, Kool-Aid…..” and contributes nothing of value here.
“Foley’s numbers have tumbled ”
In all fairness Ken, no one knows if that’s true or just a lie made up by Kevin Rennie.
Ed,
So now Foley says that he never ran his companies, just invested in them? Sounds like that business record he touted so much is coming back to haunt him.
“So now Foley says that he never ran his companies, just invested in them?”
Ken, where did he say that? I don’t think he did. I simply pointed out to you that no one knows if Kevin Rennie is lying or telling the truth about these mysterious polls he keeps blogging about. We’re not going to know if anything is truly “haunting” him (or not) until we see either a real poll or the ultimate final poll on August 10th. I still think Foley will win, what do you think?
Ed,
Oh, he said it. Here is the quote:
“I’m not really a company operator. I’m an investor. I built up a portfolio of companies I acquired. Most have been sold.”
—Tom Foley
Irish Times
July 31, 2010
Thanks and a tip of the hat to Capitol Report 2010, which featured the Irish Times article (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0731/1224275906416.html) .
As for the polls, we’ll see what the public polls say. If the lead is under 15 Foley is in serious trouble.
BTW, I have known and watch Kevin Rennie for a long time. Don’t especially like him. But lies are not his style.
OMG! It sure sounds like Foley is running away from his record. I wonder what HIS polls are showing.
You will note the Foley won the convention. Voters in August 10th primaries are party faithful.
Could be they’ll stay with the main winners.
i still wish Mark Boughton had won the Gov. convention race. well, there’s always another time.
In the last forty years, Republican state conventions have endorsed sixty candidates for statewide office. Twelve of those sixty nominees have gone on to win. If you exclude candidates running for Governor and Lt. Governor, I believe four out of forty nominees (10%) have been elected, none of them since 1994. Not a great track record.
Okay Ken but please forgive me for not reading the Irish Times today. Not only did I not read it today, I’ve never heard of it until now. I’m personally not concerned at all about what you may consider to be something significant and I don’t think this revelation will have any affect on undecided primary voters so I suppose we’ll just have to disagree.
As far and Kevin “lying” okay but spreading unsubstantiated rumors is something he’s done in the past as he has done in this case. He also have a proven record of being wrong with his writings in the Hartford Courant. Most recently, he reported there were only ten primaries for State Rep. this year when in fact there are more than twice that. He got called on it here and of course ignored it and never issued a correction or an acknowledgment he was wrong. If you think about it, that is indeed a lie and as with this case spreading unsubstantiated rumors borders on lying too.
I think that it is fair to say that what Foley said matters a lot more than where he said it.
True as to where but I still don’t think what he said matters but that’s just me.
As someone else pointed out:
” Foley now says that he was an investor not “company operator”. That from a man who took about $20 million in “management fees” from the Bibb Manufacturing Company as it was sliding into bankruptcy. If he was just an investor why was he paid $20 million in management fees?”
FYI, there is a Q-Poll in the field right now… old Fuzzy’s mild mannered alter-ego got his first ever Q-Poll phone call earlier this evening.
It also appears that I was grossly wrong about Griebel likely winning the “lion’s share” of newspaper endorsements… so far Foley appears to lead, with the endorsements of both the Courant and The Day. Malloy is also fairing well.
I see what you’re saying Ken and no offense but I just don’t see the average semi-disinterested uncommitted primary voter being swayed at all by that. I talked to quite a few primary voters today and they are not following things much and they’re really sick and tired of all the freakin’ TV advertising, the mail and the stupid phone calls. They change the channel or leave the room for the tv ads, they don’t even read the mail before they throw it away and they don’t answer the phone calls. I think turnout is going to be lower than most people think.
Fuzzy, did you tell them you were a Democrat or a Republican? And when you answered their questions, did you tell the truth or lie to them?
I’ve been called twice by the Q-poll people and I seldom tell them the truth. I remember being called by them earlier in the year and when I was asked about the US Senate race between Schiff, Simmons and McMahon, I told them “Schiff.”
I told them that I was Republican and undecided, and had considered voting for Boughton but was persuaded not to by my landscaper.
Oz is the best candidate for the job. It’s just a shame that he isn’t more well known. I suggest all of you read up on him and make sure you support him in the primary. Fedele and Foley won’t do anything but dig our state into a deeper hole!
The debate last wednesday was almost a joke. Fedele and Foley made themselves look like bickering adolescents while Mr. Griebel just watched. He looked like the more composed and less ego-centric of the three Republicans and I think thats what he is all about. He is ready to put his ego aside and work hard for our state. My hope is that the undecided voters of our state will see that before or on August 10th.
Funny you mention that about your landscaper fuzzy. That’s a huge problem with Boughton, his negatives. Yes he has name recognition but lots of it is not good. I heard his stump speech a couple of times and it wasn’t bad and quite a few people who had never heard of him before liked what he had to say. I think he had more delegates committed to him than Fedele did before they decided to team up. I think Boughton had the necessary 15% but I don’t think Fedele did.
“Oz is the best candidate for the job. It’s just a shame that he isn’t more well known. ”
Oh please…..where’s Sue to accuse LuckyChams of being Grebal’s campaign manager Ashleee?
LuckyChams, we’ve “read up” on this turkey and have concluded that he is by far the worst candidate out there. He’s in favor of increasing taxes and putting tolls back on the roads. Yes you are correct, NO ONE knows who he is so why did he even bother running for Governor? The answer is because he’s on a huge ego trip. He’ll be lucky if he garners 15% in the primary and will definitely come in last.
As much as I would absolutely love this to be true, I’m going to need something better than Kevin’s rumors. You can’t just spread stuff like this and then name private polls from mystery sources as your evidence. Until I see numbers confirming this in a public poll (the next Q poll comes out on Thursday) I just can’t believe this.