Developments in Two New England House Races.

The Cook Political Report changed its ratings on seven (7) open Democratic House seats.  One of note in New England, where there are no Republicans in the House, is the seat being vacated by troubled Patches Kennedy, RI-01.  It moves from Likey D to Leans D.

Republican John Loughlin, a three-term state legislator, faces Democrat David Cicilline, the mayor of Providence. Mr. Loughlin, who got into the race early, was thought to have suffered a fatal blow to his candidacy when incumbent Kennedy announced in February that he would not seek a 9th term. Rhode Island vies for the title of the most Democratic state in the nation, though it has elected several Republican governors and the Chafees once had a firm grip on a United States Senate seat.  There is something in the air in the Ocean State.  September primaries saw a hefty harvest of 9 incumbent state legislators scythed and bundled off the state, including David Caprio, brother of Frank Caprio, the Democratic nominee for governor.

Earlier this week, Massachusetts Republican Sean Bielat released a campaign poll showing him within 10 points of incumbent Congressman Barney Frank in their race to represent a suburban Boston district that United States Senator Scott Brown carried in his January victory, setting Democratic teeth chattering over what might be ahead.  Not there, though, surely not there.

Campaign polls are often suspect, but the smarties at RealClearPolitics have taken a look and provided this analysis:

MA-04 – Sean Bielat released a campaign poll showing him trailing Congressman Barney Frank (D) 48 percent to 38 percent. Obviously, this is a campaign poll, so take with the requisite grain of salt, but we should not completely dismiss the poll either; this is a district that Scott Brown carried. Frank hasn’t been below 68 percent in this district in a very long time, but as Chairman of the House Banking Committee, it is easy to see him getting tagged with the blame from bailouts and such. Bill Clinton has visited the district recently, so despite his denials, he’s probably seeing something in his internals that he doesn’t like.

Regardless, Barney Frank’s opponent shouldn’t be able to create a poll showing Frank below 50 percent in anything resembling a normal year. This is no normal year.

We’ll take a look at developments in several Connecticut races for the House in a few days.