Fedele Shows Some Numbers.
Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele’s released the results of a survey conducted for his gubernatorial campaign last week by Public Opinion Strategies. The poll of 300 likely Republican voters shows Fedele ahead of rival Tom Foley 28%-24%. Oz Griebel gets 15%. Running first last with a week or less (the campaign didn’t release the dates on which it was conducted) to go was undecided at a hefty 33%.
Neil Newhouse, of Public Opinion Strategies and an old hand at polling statewide Connecticut races, explained the results:
“The combination of Foley’s arrest record, his efforts to prevent the Fedele campaign from receiving public financing and the exposure of his mismanagement of the Bibb Company have contributed to the erosion of his support and growing doubts about his candidacy.”
“Fedele clearly has the momentum in this race and is in position to pull off a historic comeback.”
The race remains volatile and vitriolic.
14 comments
Validates what Rennie has been saying for 7 days and in line with what Mcmahon’s pollsters have had for a few days… we will see what the US’ second most innacurate poll says tomorrow, but looks like Fedele can pull this one out…
I heard the same thing from McMahon folks, but it was only on one or two days.
The word is also that Democratic undecideds are breaking heavily in favor of Malloy.
Is 300 a decent sized sample for a Statewide Race?
Small sample, with a high margin of error which is probably greater than the four point spread. But, even allowing for that it is a lot less than 15 points.
The truth is in a primary election polls are of limited use, especially this close to an election. Its going to come down to who gets their vote out. Anyone could win.
Fedele really is desperate. I wouldn’t be surprised if this poll was conducted at a Fedele rally.
Newhouse is a pro with a first class reputations. The numbers may or may not prove to be correct, but I’m sure that they were accurate when the poll was taken.
There’s no way 1/3 of the people are undecided at this point.
The real poll is on Tuesday. Foley will win. Here’s how I think it will breakdown:
Foley 48%
Fedele 38%
Griebel 14%
I got called a few days ago, I lied to them and told them I was voting for Fedele.
Thirty-three per cent probably understates those who are undecided/don’t know/don’t care. That’s why I think the vote on Tuesday will be so low (under 20%). If that is true anything can happen.
One additional benefit for both Foley and Malloy: Their names will be on the first line of the ballot. This will likely benefit Foley more than Malloy because, as Kevin has pointed out, Republicans tend to elect the party endorsed candidate.
Fuzzy’s predictions for tomorrow:
Foley: 50
Fedele: 38
Griebel: 12
>>> basically I think the party endorsement is going to play a bigger roll at the poll than the Schwartz is able to quantify. It also seems like there’s a lot more Republicans who are offended by Fedele’s Bibb ad than swayed by it.
Malloy: 51
Lamont: 49
>>>> There’s going to be higher Democratic turnout than anticipated (note I said higher than anticipated, but still pretty damn low). Malloy has the benefit of the party endorsement, and also nearly every major newspaper in Connecticut. Lamont’s unfavorables are slightly worse, and I have a sneaking suspicion they are actually even higher than the Q-Poll shows… a lot of Democrats who supported Joe Lieberman despise Ned, particularly Jewish voters, and they come out to vote. Finally, Ned has earned whatever supporters he has already and is unlikely to win more converts (this is because most of his numbers are simply attributed to name recognition). Clearly, from what the Q-Poll shows and from what I’m hearing privately, undecided voters are breaking for Malloy. A lot of Democrats remain undecided until just before the election but then actually do take the time, however briefly, to educate themselves. Those Democrats will tend to favor Malloy, so I give him the election in a squeaker.
Also, Mary Glassman has seriously been pissing off a lot of longtime Democratic party members with her idiotic mailers attacking Nancy Wyman. Mike Jarjura attacking Kevin Lembo is one thing. But attacking Nancy, one of the most beloved women in the party? Super idea. Mary will have a lot to atone for if she loses, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Democrats with a Lamont/Wyman ticket on Wednesday morning.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Courtney Weaver, John Martin. John Martin said: @Fedele2010 drops 12 points in 12 hours. http://goo.gl/Yz5l and http://goo.gl/8gPm #taxhikemike #ctgop #ctgov […]
Newhouse commented on this poll, but it is not clear if he actually conducted it.
“That’s why I think the vote on Tuesday will be so low (under 20%).”
It won’t be that low, it will be right around 40%. Fedele’s poll probably did a lousy job of identifying “likely Republican voters” which is why the supposed undecided number is so high.
quinipiac poll
Foley – 38%
Fedele – 30%
Oz – 17%
Margin of error = 3.8% so this isn’t a “toss up.” Foley will win.
Where’s Kevin’s article?
“Newhouse commented on this poll, but it is not clear if he actually conducted it.”
You’re 100% correct George. Kevin Rennie is making up his own facts here because the Fedele press release clearly does NOT say that Newhouse did the poll.
Quote from Fedele’s release:
“Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said of the poll’s findings:”
Kevin Rennie making up facts:
“Fedele’s (sic) released the results of a survey conducted for his gubernatorial campaign last week by Public Opinion Strategies. ”
Rennie is sleazier than the National Enquirer.
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