Foley’s Fine Mess.

Don’t expect super PAC Voters for Good Government to release any more polls touting the popularity of Republican Tom Foley. What a fine mess the former ambassador to Ireland has made of that.

The State Election Enforcement Commission’s investigation into the suspect survey could reach its endgame this month. The commission next meets on Wednesday, October 16th. That does not leave much time for the 2010 Republican nominee for governor to decide whether to reach a settlement with the enforcement agency or proceed to a more formal–and unpredictable–disposition of the complaint.

The central issue of the complaint filed by a Hamden Republican is whether Foley was required to form a candidate committee under state election finance laws before the super PAC commissioned a poll by the Tarrance Group to measure, among other things, Foley’s standing with Connecticut voters. Who signed the check to the Tarrance Group for the poll is causing spirited speculation and comment among the state’s politerati. An airing of the details of the case could demolish Foley’s rickety bid to portray himself as the candidate holding high the torch of rectitude, promising to drain the swamp. This was always a dodgy strategy for the Greenwich Republican.

The SEEC investigation will not feature ruinous FBI video of $5,000 in an illegal cash contribution being put in office refrigerator–a la House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero–it’s likely to contain enough to cause leery Republicans to grow more uneasy with a Foley candidacy.