Notes on the Quinnipiac Poll.

The Quinnipiac Poll make a splash today with a Niagara of numbers on the United States Senate race to fill the seat of retiring incumbent Joseph Lieberman. Snagging the headlines were the results of the party nomination contests, with Democrat Christopher Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon leading 11 months before their fellow party members will vote in primaries if the nominating contests are not settled at spring party conventions.

Overlooked in the initial analysis of the poll results are the similar favorability ratings of the top contenders. They are bunched together near the 40% mark.  Christopher Shays has 41%, Susan Bysiewicz 39%, and Murphy and McMahon  are at 38%. Nobody is feeling a lot of love. McMahon’s 45% unfavorable rating matches President Obama’s.  Her challenge, as it was last year, is to improve her standing with women. What’s may be as significant is that after being the target of millions of dollars in negative ads a year ago, she’s as popular as the others who have never endured such a barrage.

McMahon will have a window of opportunity when she launches her campaign next week. There’ll be little interference from other candidates if the Greenwich Republican talks about what she wants to do as a member of the United States Senate and how she’d accomplish her goals.  No pale pastels.  No platitudes.  She needs to convey the Linda McMahon the public meets as she has continued to attend events around the state since her 2010 campaign ended.

Democrat William Tong snagged a teeny-tiny 1% in a head-to-head-to-head contest for the Democrat nomination.  That must be a disappointment for the biography candidate from Stamford via prep school, Brown and the University of Chicago School of Law.  For a little perspective, 1% is the same percentage former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum gathers among state Republicans in his presidential bid.  Dismal by any standard.

At least Tong’s numbers are not headed in the same direction as Bysiewicz’s.  She’s lost 10 percentage points on her favorability rating in the past year.  Her unfavorables have climbed from 14% a year ago to 27% in today’s poll.

Lieberman must be pleased.  He’s soared to a 51% favorable rating (with 62% of Republicans taking a positive view of the 4 term incumbent) and 40% disapproving of his performance.  There may still be room for a centrist in frontline state politics, which will encourage some contenders and unsettle others.