Plutocrats Leading in Party Races for Governor, Malloy Closing on Lamont.
Greenwich millionaires Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Tom Foley continue to lead in August 10th primary races, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Endorsed Democrat Dan Malloy, however, has reduced Lamont’s steady lead to 9 points. Malloy has been able to wage a robust campaign since receiving more than $2 million in taxpayer funds in May. Add Malloy’s superior organization in a low turnout primary and his path to victory begins to emerge. The former Stamford mayor, who won May’s party convention by a large margin, could be nipping at Lamont’s heels in the next poll.
Don’t be surprised if Lamont starts taking some whacks at Malloy.
Foley continues to hold a vast lead over his Republican rivals, Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and Nelson “Oz” Griebel. Fedele has more than $2 million to spend in the next 27 days. That’s a lot of dough for a primary that may attract no more than 125,000 Republicans to the polls. He’s 35 points behind Foley, the party-endorsed candidate. Soft, biographical ads will not bring Fedele a victory, no matter how enchanted he is with his own story. The Stamford Republican is going to have to rip some bark off Foley if he’s to have a chance at winning. We’ll know soon if Fedele has the stomach for it. Foley would if he were trailing by 35 points.
Warm and sunny isn’t the forecast for the airwaves between now and August 10th.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will face begin the general election far behind the Democratic nominee, according to Quinnipiac.
7 comments
Kevin,
Unless he starts running ads that directly attack Foley, I don’t see how Fedele could possibly become more negative. As I’ve said before, Chris Cooper has all but accused Tom Foley of drinking the blood of laid off textile workers. Whenever Chris is asked by a reporter about the merits of Foley’s lawsuits, he manages to change the subject to either Bibb or Foley’s arrests. Moreover, the story in Hearst that raised “questions” about Foley’s Iraq service was, in my humble opinion, a fairly obvious plant… the Fedele campaign just didn’t do a victory lap ala Linda McMahon.
If Foley wins, as appears to be increasingly likely, his prospects for a running mate are almost comical…. will he be paired with a woman, Lisa Wilson-Foley, who shares half a hyphenated last name with him (making campaign posters somewhat awkward) and the first name of his ex-wife (no doubt requiring frequent explanation by reporters every time they appear together in a story), or with a man, Mark Boughton, who repeatedly, and perhaps unnecessarily, has sided with Foley’s opponent in what has become the most divisive Republican primary in recent memory.
Boughton could have remained as neutral as possible during the primary; instead, he officially teamed up with Fedele, giving Mike the donors he needed. Without Mark Boughton, the Fedele campaign would be all but shuttered right now, starved for cash. Without Mark Boughton, Tom Foley would be a virtual lock for the nomination. The position of Lieutenant Governor is somewhat unenviable to begin with… the prospect of doing it for a boss who resents you for doing everything in your power to see that he didn’t win your party’s nomination is downright frightening. Should Mark and Tom both win the nomination, Mark will need to think long and hard about whether it is something he wishes to pursue… the six figure salary for the part time gig might be the only attractive part of the entire package.
As far as Malloy and Lamont, note that Lamont’s unfavorables are about 10 points higher than Dan’s. Republicans should be praying for a Lamont victory. He will undoubtedly be the easier of the two candidates to gain traction against.
The rhetoric between the Republican spokesmen has become heated. That doesn’t have the potential broad impact as a menacing ad with ominous music and an accusatory voiceover. Even with those it is very hard to see how Fedele closes the gap because he is unknown to so many Republican voters. Foley, of course, is not that well known, so he’s more susceptible to attack than the average party-endorsed candidates.
In 1994, Pauline Kezer used her meager resources to produce and buy a little time to broadcast a shadowy ad about John Rowland’s domestic strife. It didn’t help her in the primary, but it planted the seeds for some serious trouble in the general election. Trouble that nearly sank him.
Foley saddled with Lisa Wilson-Foley could turn into a French farce. The first name, too? What are the odds?
You are right that Mark Boughton saved Fedele, but Boughton probably was not going to get to $75,000 on his own, so Fedele helped keep him in the money game.
Connecticut Republican primary voters tend to be deferential to party-endorsed candidates. That’s based on my impression of the few statewide primaries Republicans have held since the first one in 1970. The only challengers I can think of who won are Julie Belaga for governor in 1986 Brook Johnson for the Senate in 1992. The handful of other statewide nominating primaries were in 1970, 1980, and 1994. If there were others, sing out. Connecticut Republicans usually resolve these contests at the party convention.
The x factor in the LG question is how much of the joint (and in my view illegal, but thats another story that the courts will resolve eventually) Fedele Boughton money will be spent to promote Boughton. I don’t think the two of them care for each other either. All of their joint campaigning has been self interested at best. I think that Boughton was a tool for Fedele and he will probably lose to Lisa because now that Fedele has the dough, Boughton is going to be an after thought. He appears at the end of Fedeles latest commercial for about two seconds with a forced grin. Too bad your picture isnt on the ballot Mark.
I watched the debate last night. Based on what I saw and heard, to me, Foley is a better candidate than Fedele. The arrest stuff, without more, is not going to impact the race in the primary. It was too long ago. I have heard Foley is not good in the debate format. Honestly, I didn’t see that last night. I thought he was pretty good. He has a direct message and he sounds like he will make tough decisions. I do not think a lot of people believe Fedele when he says he will veto any budget with any tax increases. Sounds good, but it does not ring true. The soft biographical stuff that Fedele is running works better earlier on, like April or May. With less than a month to go, Fedele needs better commercials. And a lot of them.
Maybe Fedele will settle for the weak Rell, “let it pass without my signature” ploy
Yeah, unfortunately the only way I see this going is more negative. When a candidate is leading the other ones by that much it really seems like the only way these campaigns head is more negative. I really hope that it doesn’t devolve into senseless mudslinging where the issues are just completely lost. We’re going to have to see each one of them comment on things like how they are specifically going to balance the budget before we really know what they’re like. Otherwise we’re just going to be voting blind.
“Soft, biographical ads will not bring Fedele a victory, no matter how enchanted he is with his own story.” Great advice. I think Foley’s straightforward message has locked the primary for him. I also think that same message will resonate real well in the general. I get the impression that Foley was the bully at Greenwich High and Lamont was the bullied nerd. I think the general will roll the same way – if Lamont can get there.
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