Why Charlie Crist is No Joe Lieberman, and Marco Rubio is No Ned Lamont.

Florida governor Charlie Crist has skedaddled from the Republican race for the United States Senate to continue running as an independent, avoiding a primary rout in and August contest with Republican former speaker of the house Marco Rubio.  Some are claiming that Crist will prove to be this year’s Joe Lieberman and beat Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek.  Other than running as independents, there are few similarities between Lieberman then and Crist now.

In 2006, Lieberman nearly held off his Democratic nemesis, Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont, in the summer of Iraq battle.  The three term incumbent enjoyed the support of the state’s Democratic establishment, and a late bus tour of the state with Senator Christopher Dodd seemed to rally party regulars.  It was not, however, to blunt the Lamont surge, turbocharged by Lieberman’s refusal to alter his stand on the importance of winning the war in beleaguered Iraq.

Crist was heading for a humiliating defeat in the Republican primary.  The sure-footed Rubio, another contrast with neophyte Lamont, shrewdly captured support of the Republican establishment in the state.  Like Lieberman, it’s Rubio who enjoys the a national following among party activists.  Without a Lamont-like fortune, Crist shows not signs of being able to keep up with Rubio’s growing network of donors across the country, the same outpouring of support that provided millions to Scott Brown a few months ago.

Despite Lamont’s generous donations to his campaign (more than $16 million), Lieberman always stayed competitive in fundraising, though it frequently took him off the campaign trail.  Lieberman, of course, had been his party’s nominee for vice president only 6 years before, so he had a network of contacts that Crist does not.

The lack of a serious Republican candidate in the race unleashed a stampede of Republican voters to Lieberman, who’d always done well with members of the GOP.  Kendrick Meeks is no Alan Schlesinger.  He’ll hold on to a lot more Democrats than the unknown Schlesinger did with Republicans with his erratic sideshow four years ago.

Lieberman had a cause in 2006.  He spoke with conviction about national security in 2006, becoming a better candidate in adversity.  If some public passion other than ambition informs Crist’s candidacy, it’d be clear by now what it is.

The most serious problem for Crist isn’t that he’s no Joe Lieberman.  It’s that Marco Rubio is nothing like Ned Lamont.  Rubio is an accomplished, articulate and shrewd candidate.  Lamont captured a moment that summer and then sputtered to a 10 point defeat at the end of an accident-prone fall campaign, which is what Crist’s campaign is likely to look like in 6 months.