Will Shays Start on Third?

From his perch on the Chesapeake Bay, former congressman Christopher Shays’ whiney voice pierces Connecticut gubernatorial politics.  The defeated 11 term House of Representatives veteran has been hinting at a run for governor–of Connecticut.

Shays has mistaken an opening for an opportunity.  With Governor M. Jodi Rell taking a bow and departing the crumbling stage, Republicans have not coalesced around a candidate.  Lt. Governor Michael Fedele is hoping the dominant Republican deference gene will see him through to the nomination.  Former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has been making the vivid point through a barrage of television commercials that he has a lot of money.

Danbury’s Mark Boughton has been impressing town committees around the state with a notably lean campaign organization, which will make Republicans wonder how he’d compete with Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont, should he win the Democratic nomination.  There are a various other Republican hopefuls. Nobody is the clear frontrunner.

Shays must see the uncertainty as mighty tempting.  He has a base in the Republican-ish 4th congressional district.  Foley has a claim on Greenwich, Fedele on Stamford.  Those are the two most significant nests of Republicans in the state.  The problem for Shays is that many Republicans supported him in races for congress when the only alternative was a Democrat.  In the competition for governor, there are plenty of Republican alternatives the faithful may see as preferable to Shays, who can pluck on party nerves.

The state campaign finance system requires Shays to raise in a trice $250,000 in small contributions.  That $250,000 figure dogs Parson Shays.  It’s the amount of his ’08 campaign deficit, caused in no small measure by the alleged malfeasance of his longtime campaign manager, whom Shays moved on and off his federal payroll.  Alleged to have been taken by indicted Michael Sohn, once trusted right hand man and friend, from under Shays’ nose.

Going outside the state campaign finance system would look odd since Shays has been a big booster of such schemes, though they’ve hit the shoals of our constitutional right to free speech.  in addition, Shays may find it a challenge to raise money without tapping lobbyists and others excluded from giving in Connecticut.  Washington Republicans helped raise a lot of money for Shays in his most recent battles because they didn’t want to lose his seat.  A lot of those contributions were not made from affection.

Shays would face a tough fight for the Republican nomination for governor.  It might be easier for Shays to collect signatures for an independent run.  It has, you may recall, been done before.  Shays could work on fundraising, his message, and moving back to Connecticut until the major parties hold their primaries in early August.

By eschewing the Republican nomination, Shays could wash off some of the stink that clings to him for many of the votes he cast in those decades in Congress.  The Democrats didn’t invent deficits in the past year.  An independent bid would give the conscientious objector turned warrior time to remake himself once again.  In addition, Shays could capitalize on disenchantment with both parties by claiming to be something new and different.

He could be a little bit Weicker and a little bit Lieberman as he faced the two battered winners of the major party primaries in the general election, or whatever it is the other two aren’t by then. Then Shays could explain to us where Connecticut’s gone wrong and how he will  make it right, issues he’s never discussed with the state before his sudden flirtation with one more campaign.